Black Horse Update 10/20/2022

Why is Natural Gas So Important?

Fertilizer for Food

&

Heat and Electricity

The Era Of Cheap Food And Cheap Gasoline Is Over

From the article:

All of our lifestyles are about to change in a major way, but the vast majority of the population still does not understand what is coming.  

Throughout our entire lives, we have always been able to depend on a couple of things.  There would always be cheap gasoline to fuel our vehicles and there would always be mountains of cheap food at the grocery store.  

No matter who was in the White House and no matter what else was going on in the world, those two things always remained the same.  Unfortunately, those days are now over and they aren’t coming back.

We have entered the greatest energy crisis that any of us have ever experienced, and it isn’t going to go away any time soon….

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CCP says China First!

China Halts Natural Gas Sales To Fuel-Starved Europe Ahead Of Winter: REPORT

From the article:

The Chinese government told state-owned oil and gas companies to stop selling liquified natural gas (LNG) to an energy-deprived Europe in order to stockpile domestic fuel supplies in time for winter, according to Bloomberg.

The National Development and Reform Commission, China’s chief economic management agency, has requested that PetroChina, Sinopec and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) save winter gas supplies for domestic use, the outlet reported, citing people familiar with the matter. The decision could deepen Europe’s energy crisis as the continent continues to face extreme natural gas shortages, spurring governments to encourage electricity rationing as household electricity prices continue to soar. (RELATED: European Countries Push Back After EU Tells Them How Much Gas They Can Use)

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And then there’s the:

Constant denial of a liar!?!?

From the article:

But for those diehard Democrats who have claimed jobless and unemployment numbers were good so it couldn’t be a REAL recession, there’s now further bad news….

Biden repeatedly has claimed the U.S. won’t have a recession, and said as recently as this weekend that the nation’s economy is “strong as hell,” while munching on ice cream during a campaign trip….

…But so far inflation has continued to rage under Biden’s policies….

…Besides the harms to consumers from the skyrocketing costs of basic living necessities, food and energy, they also are hit hard with exploding interest costs on any debt they may have….

The report explained what it means to Democrats:

“A recession would be bad news for the Biden administration and for Democratic members of Congress. Inflation is already the biggest issue facing voters heading into the midterm elections, and Republicans are hoping to capitalize on the higher prices in order to wrest back control of the House and Senate. If inflation continues to remain as sticky as it has and the economy craters into a full-blown recession, it would undoubtedly be used as a cudgel against Biden and Democratic policies in the coming months and years as the GOP pushes to win back the White House in 2024.”

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And what will they do other than a slew of hearings?

It takes a two thirds majority to override a veto!

Meanwhile:

To Stay warm or to stay full?

That will be the question!

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The Food Crisis Of 2023 Is Coming & It’s Going to Be Worse Than People Realize

From the article:


I am trying to sound the alarm about this as loudly as I can.  The global food crisis just continues to intensify, and things are going to get really bad in 2023.  

As you will see below, two-thirds of European fertilizer production has already been shut down, currency problems are causing massive headaches for poor nations that need to import food, global weather patterns continue to be completely crazy, and the bird flu is killing millions upon millions of chickens and turkeys all over the planet.  

On top of everything else, the war in Ukraine is going to restrict the flow of agricultural and fertilizer exports from that part of the world for a long time to come, because there is no end to the war in sight.  In essence, we are facing a “perfect storm” for global food production, and that “perfect storm” is only going to get worse in the months ahead.

Global hunger has been on the rise for years, and the UN World Food Program is warning that we are heading for “yet another year of record hunger”…

The world is at risk of yet another year of record hunger as the global food crisis continues to drive yet more people into worsening levels of severe hunger, warns the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) in a call for urgent action to address the root causes of today’s crisis ahead of World Food Day on October 16.

The global food crisis is a confluence of competing crises – caused by climate shocks, conflict and economic pressures – that has pushed the number of severely hungry people around the world from 282 million to 345 million in just the first months of 2022. The U.N. World Food Programme scaled up food assistance targets to reach a record 153 million people in 2022, and by mid-year had already delivered assistance to 111.2 million people.

But as I have consistently warned, this is only just the beginning….

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A not so good winter outlook!

This Is Going To Be A Winter Like No Other

From the article:

It is starting to get cold outside.  Are you ready for a winter that will be unlike any other?  As I have been documenting on The Economic Collapse Blog for months, the nightmarish global energy crisis that has erupted is not going to end any time soon.  

In fact, it has the potential to get a whole lot worse in 2023 and beyond.  Energy prices have already risen to absolutely absurd levels, and now winter is coming.  Unfortunately, many forecasters are warning that this winter is going to be a doozy.  Colder than normal temperatures are expected across much of the northern hemisphere, and if that actually happens that would put a tremendous amount of strain on the system.

For example, just look at what New England is potentially facing.  According to the Wall Street Journal, residents of the six states which make up the region could actually experience “rolling blackouts” if this turns out to be a really cold winter…

New England, which relies on natural-gas imports to bridge winter supply gaps, is now competing with European countries for shipments of liquefied natural gas, following Russia’s halt of most pipeline gas to the continent. Severe cold spells in the Northeast could reduce the amount of gas available to generate electricity as more of it is burned to heat homes.

The region’s power-grid operator, ISO New England Inc., has warned that an extremely cold winter could strain the reliability of the grid and potentially result in the need for rolling blackouts to keep electricity supply and demand in balance. The warning comes as executives and analysts predict power producers could have to pay as much as several times more than last year for gas deliveries if severe weather creates urgent need for spot-market purchases.

New England will likely be directly competing with the European Union for dwindling supplies of natural gas this winter.

Unfortunately, there is probably not going to be enough to go around.

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Who’s rolling in the LNG dough?

See:

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Yeast inflates the size of the bread loaf dough, but not it’s weight and price!

Bread causing $10-per-loaf sticker shock as inflation surges

From a July 18,2022 article:

Bread prices are becoming another source of sticker shock for grocery shoppers during a period of decades-high inflation, according to a report.

The price of artisanal bread and other premium options has hit $10 per 2-pound loaf at some grocery stores – turning a pantry staple into a pain point for consumers already facing financial headaches like $5-per-gallon gasoline.

At a Whole Foods in Manhattan, bread prices listed online ranged from $3.49 for a standard loaf of classic white bread to $6 and beyond for premium offerings. A one-pound loaf of Base Culture nut and seed bread cost $10.49.

Fairway Market offered similarly steep prices, with a bag of King’s Hawaiian Sweet Rolls price at $10.19 and a classic brioche listed at $7.99. Loafs of white bread ranged up to $7.49, depending on the brand and size.

The sight of $10-per-loaf prices is “like a punch in the nose” to shoppers, Mark Cohen, director of retail studies at Columbia University, told Bloomberg. Prices have reached levels that “nobody has seen before.”…

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Next year’s wheat crop?!?!

Take it from the farmers!

U.S. winter wheat growers seed into dust as Plains drought persists

*Published: October 17, 2022

From the article:

Chicago | Reuters — With seeding roughly halfway complete, the 2023 U.S. hard red winter wheat crop is already being hobbled by drought in the heart of the southern Plains, wheat experts said.

Seeding plans may be scaled back in the U.S. breadbasket despite historically high prices for this time of year, reflecting rising global demand and thin world wheat supplies projected to end the 2022-23 marketing year at a six-year low. The tight supplies have been exacerbated as the conflict in Ukraine has disrupted grain exports from the Black Sea region.

The drought threatens Kansas, the top winter wheat growing state, and Oklahoma in two ways: discouraging farmers who have not yet planted from trying, while threatening crops already in the ground from developing properly.

“It’s sort of a grim situation,” said Kent Winter, who farms in Andale, Kan., outside Wichita. He said he normally seeds by mid-October but has yet to plant any wheat this year.

*If rain does not fall in the next 10 days, he will begin “dusting in” the crop and hoping for moisture. Final seeding dates to receive full crop insurance coverage are approaching, ranging from Oct. 15 in northwest Kansas to Nov. 15 in the southeast.

Without moisture, wheat shoots may fail to emerge from the ground. Even a delayed emergence would threaten yield potential by narrowing the window for plants to develop a hardy root system and push out more stems, known as tillers, before winter.

“That puts a nail in the coffin,” said Mark Hodges, an agronomist for Plains Grains Inc, an Oklahoma-based group that tests wheat for quality. Hodges said, “If you don’t have the tillers in the fall, it’s really hard to make up that number in the spring.”

Fears of a supply squeeze are underscored by the July Kansas City wheat futures contract trading around $9.40 a bushel, the highest price on record for a new-crop July contract at this time of year, the thick of the fall planting season.

About two-thirds of wheat in the U.S., among the top five global exporters, is grown as a winter crop rather than spring.

While Plains farmers would like to take advantage of high prices, the dry weather may discourage producers from committing to supplies of high-priced seeds and fertilizer…….

Gary Millershaski, a farmer and scout on the Wheat Quality Council’s Kansas wheat tour, inspects winter wheat stunted by drought near Syracuse, about 170 km west of Dodge City, on May 18, 2022. (File photo: Reuters/Julie Ingwersen)

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Backing up just a bit!

Column: World wheat squeeze set to worsen into 2023, price risks remain -Braun

From the May 13, 2022 article:

NAPERVILLE, Ill., May 12 (Reuters) – Despite global wheat prices trading at record highs for the time of year, market participants may have been too optimistic on the supply outlook for the upcoming year if the U.S. government’s new projections are any indication.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Thursday pegged world wheat ending stocks for the 2022-23 marketing year at 267 million tonnes, a six-year low, well below analyst estimates of 272 million.

But relative to estimated global demand, wheat supplies for the upcoming cycle are seen dangerously close to all-time lows and notably below this year’s reduced levels.

When excluding China, world wheat stocks-to-use for 2022-23 falls to 14.9% from 16.4% this year, and it would be the fourth lowest ever. The record of 14.3% was set in 2007-08, and the average from mid-last decade was 19%.

That could keep wheat prices elevated into 2023, impacting food prices for consumers globally and ensuring continued high costs for importer countries. Further risks to 2022-23 wheat supplies are possible….

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Also:

South of the equator?!?!

La Niña, South American Grain Production & Preview of October USDA Crop Report

From the article:

…In addition, farmers and grain traders from around the world keep asking me what the October USDA crop report might be and how to position oneself ahead of it.

First of all, the September WASDE report made substantial changes to new-crop 2022/23 US corn and soybean production estimates. Both acreage and yield changes moved production lower. Soybean yield saw the biggest, most unexpected change with yield projections lowered by 2.7% from the previous August forecast. USDA offset some potential tightening of corn and soybean balance sheets by adjusting all use projections lower as well. 

USDA lowered projected 2022 corn and soybean production. Observed production changes were the largest since initial new-crop supply estimates were released in May of this year.  Harvested acreage and yield estimates were both below previously projected levels. This was somewhat unusual in that the National Agricultural Statistics Service chose to release updated acreage estimates in September rather than October because it deemed other agency data substantially complete enough to do so. What this implies for further adjustments to 2022 acreage estimates is unclear and additional shockers may be possible in either the October of November reports.

In addition, notice the deteriorating drought conditions in the western corn belt into September. The three charts below this illustrate that all three commodities: corn, soybeans and cotton have seen worsening crop conditions in the late summer and early fall. Obviously, dry weather in the western belt in September has little additional adverse effect on corn production, but it probably nipped the U.S. soybean crop a bit further.

Nevertheless, the USDA will likely lower U.S. corn production anyway. This is because of what history shows following 70% of all La Niña events…….

The future of our daily bread.

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In whom should we trust?

Revelation 6:5-6 (KJV)

And when he had opened the third seal, I heard the third beast say, Come and see. And I beheld, and lo a black horse; and he that sat on him had a pair of balances in his hand. And I heard a voice in the midst of the four beasts say, A measure of wheat (cheonix – 1 liter) for a penny (denarius – a day’s wage), and three measures of barley for a penny; and see thou hurt not the oil and the wine.

Amos 8

KJV(i) 1 Thus hath the Lord GOD shewed unto me: and behold a basket of summer fruit. 2 And he said, Amos, what seest thou? And I said, A basket of summer fruit. Then said the LORD unto me, The end is come upon my people of Israel; I will not again pass by them any more. 3 And the songs of the temple shall be howlings in that day, saith the Lord GOD: there shall be many dead bodies in every place; they shall cast them forth with silence. 4 Hear this, O ye that swallow up the needy, even to make the poor of the land to fail, 5 Saying, When will the new moon be gone, that we may sell corn? and the sabbath, that we may set forth wheat, making the ephah small, and the shekel great, and falsifying the balances by deceit? 6 That we may buy the poor for silver, and the needy for a pair of shoes; yea, and sell the refuse of the wheat? 7 The LORD hath sworn by the excellency of Jacob, Surely I will never forget any of their works. 8 Shall not the land tremble for this, and every one mourn that dwelleth therein? and it shall rise up wholly as a flood; and it shall be cast out and drowned, as by the flood of Egypt. 9 And it shall come to pass in that day, saith the Lord GOD, that I will cause the sun to go down at noon, and I will darken the earth in the clear day: 10 And I will turn your feasts into mourning, and all your songs into lamentation; and I will bring up sackcloth upon all loins, and baldness upon every head; and I will make it as the mourning of an only son, and the end thereof as a bitter day. 11 Behold, the days come, saith the Lord GOD, that I will send a famine in the land, not a famine of bread, nor a thirst for water, but of hearing the words of the LORD12 And they shall wander from sea to sea, and from the north even to the east, they shall run to and fro to seek the word of the LORD, and shall not find it. 13 In that day shall the fair virgins and young men faint for thirst. 14 They that swear by the sin of Samaria, and say, Thy god, O Dan, liveth; and, The manner of Beersheba liveth; even they shall fall, and never rise up again.

Ezekiel 33:10-20

KJV(i) 10 Therefore, O thou son of man, speak unto the house of Israel; Thus ye speak, saying, If our transgressions and our sins be upon us, and we pine away in them, how should we then live? 11 Say unto them, As I live, saith the Lord GOD, I have no pleasure in the death of the wicked; but that the wicked turn from his way and live: turn ye, turn ye from your evil ways; for why will ye die, O house of Israel? 12 Therefore, thou son of man, say unto the children of thy people, The righteousness of the righteous shall not deliver him in the day of his transgression: as for the wickedness of the wicked, he shall not fall thereby in the day that he turneth from his wickedness; neither shall the righteous be able to live for his righteousness in the day that he sinneth. 13 When I shall say to the righteous, that he shall surely live; if he trust to his own righteousness, and commit iniquity, all his righteousnesses shall not be remembered; but for his iniquity that he hath committed, he shall die for it. 14 Again, when I say unto the wicked, Thou shalt surely die; if he turn from his sin, and do that which is lawful and right; 15 If the wicked restore the pledge, give again that he had robbed, walk in the statutes of life, without committing iniquity; he shall surely live, he shall not die. 16 None of his sins that he hath committed shall be mentioned unto him: he hath done that which is lawful and right; he shall surely live. 17 Yet the children of thy people say, The way of the Lord is not equal: but as for them, their way is not equal. 18 When the righteous turneth from his righteousness, and committeth iniquity, he shall even die thereby. 19 But if the wicked turn from his wickedness, and do that which is lawful and right, he shall live thereby. 20 Yet ye say, The way of the Lord is not equal. O ye house of Israel, I will judge you every one after his ways.

Come out of Bablon for her judgement is near!

LOLGB+

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