Our Daly Bread
Bread and other baked goods have seen significant price increases this year and the outlook for the 2023 wheat harvest isn’t looking all that bright. Winter wheat for the following year’s harvest is normally planted late summer to mid-autumn. Later plantings are risky! Winter wheat has to reach sufficient developmental stages prior to the winter snow pack. Most parts of the Global and USA’s wheat belts have experienced drought conditions during and throughout the planting season. Many farmers have planted in dust. This concern was brought up in the 10/20/22 update and very little relief has come since. The 2023 harvest will be well below earlier projected yields, more so that the 2022 harvest. Famine is caused by more than drought. (See Black Horse Archives)
From the 10/17/22 article:
CHICAGO, (Reuters) - With planting roughly halfway complete, the 2023 U.S. hard red winter wheat crop is already being hobbled by drought in the heart of the southern Plains, wheat experts said.
Planting plans may be scaled back in the U.S. breadbasket despite historically high prices for this time of year, reflecting rising global demand and thin world wheat supplies projected to end the 2022/23 marketing year at a six-year low. The tight supplies have been exacerbated as the conflict in Ukraine has disrupted grain exports from the Black Sea region.
The drought threatens Kansas, the top winter wheat growing state, and Oklahoma in two ways: discouraging farmers who have not yet planted from trying, while threatening crops already in the ground from developing properly….
From the 10/24/22 article:
Record cold and snowy weather in the third full week of October, week-ending Oct. 22, affected the eastern half of the United States. The growing season has come to an end for a large portion of the region due to a widespread freeze.
Dry conditions continued with the third week of October trending the 6th driest in more than 30 years for the Corn Belt, according to data from WeatherTrends360. While dry conditions thus far this harvest season have been favorable for harvest activities, there have been plenty of hazards associated with the dry conditions including expanding drought, low river flows, harvest-related fires, and shattering of soybeans….
Eastern Australia seems in faitly good shape.
From the article:
The region once known as the Fertile Crescent is on the verge of a food crisis as the main sources of water disappear. Officials struggle to cope as a prophetic scenario appears to materialize.
Iraqi officials are reporting that for three consecutive years, the rainy season has begun later and ended sooner than the historic norm. This has been coupled with less water flowing through its two main rivers, the Tigris and the Euphrates. The region has also been plagued by ongoing conflict.
“Desertification now threatens almost 40% of the area of our country – a country that was once one of the most fertile and productive in the region,” Iraq’s President Abdul Latif Rashid told the climate summit in Egypt last week.
Nadhir Al-Ansari, professor at Sweden’s Lulea University of Technology, told Reuters that rainfall in Iraq had declined by 30% over the past three decades, with the lowest precipitation coming in the last two years.
“What was once known as the Fertile Crescent started to die about 35 years ago,” he said.
Officials accuse Turkey of cutting the river’s flow upstream over the last two years to half the level it committed to in a 1987 accord, a claim the Turkish government denies.
In the year to September, rainfall in southeast Turkey where the rivers originate was 29% below the average of the previous three decades, according to Turkey’s meteorological agency. Dams and drought have reduced the waters of the two rivers to about 20% of previous levels….
Grain shortages anf drought has affected herds.
At least Germany can cut back on hamburger buns.
Peanut Butter and jelly sandwich anyone?
But the supply chain might get into jam!
KJV(i) 20 Therefore thus saith the Lord GOD unto them; Behold, I, even I, will judge between the fat cattle and between the lean cattle. 21 Because ye have thrust with side and with shoulder, and pushed all the diseased with your horns, till ye have scattered them abroad; 22 Therefore will I save my flock, and they shall no more be a prey; and I will judge between cattle and cattle. 23 And I will set up one shepherd over them, and he shall feed them, even my servant David; he shall feed them, and he shall be their shepherd. 24 And I the LORD will be their God, and my servant David a prince among them; I the LORD have spoken it. 25 And I will make with them a covenant of peace, and will cause the evil beasts to cease out of the land: and they shall dwell safely in the wilderness, and sleep in the woods. 26 And I will make them and the places round about my hill a blessing; and I will cause the shower to come down in his season; there shall be showers of blessing. 27 And the tree of the field shall yield her fruit, and the earth shall yield her increase, and they shall be safe in their land, and shall know that I am the LORD, when I have broken the bands of their yoke, and delivered them out of the hand of those that served themselves of them. 28 And they shall no more be a prey to the heathen, neither shall the beast of the land devour them; but they shall dwell safely, and none shall make them afraid. 29 And I will raise up for them a plant of renown, and they shall be no more consumed with hunger in the land, neither bear the shame of the heathen any more. 30 Thus shall they know that I the LORD their God am with them, and that they, even the house of Israel, are my people, saith the Lord GOD. 31 And ye my flock, the flock of my pasture, are men, and I am your God, saith the Lord GOD.
Come out of Babylon for her judgement is near!