Black Horse Update – 02/28/23

Red Horse aids Black Horse

Although wheat is being harvested somewhere in the world in any given month, harvest in the temperate zones occurs between April and September in the Northern Hemisphere and between October and January in the Southern Hemisphere.

Wheat in the world
B.C. Curtis

From first article of site:

Wheat is special in several ways. Wheat is grown on more than 240 million ha, larger than for any other crop, and world trade is greater than for all other crops combined. The raised bread loaf is possible because the wheat kernel contains gluten, an elastic form of protein that traps minute bubbles of carbon dioxide when fermentation occurs in leavened dough, causing the dough to rise (Hanson et al., 1982). It is the best of the cereal foods and provides more nourishment for humans than any other food source. Wheat is a major diet component because of the wheat plant’s agronomic adaptability, ease of grain storage and ease of converting grain into flour for making edible, palatable, interesting and satisfying foods. Doughs produced from bread wheat flour differ from those made from other cereals in their unique viscoelastic properties (Orth and Shellenberger, 1988). Wheat is the most important source of carbohydrate in a majority of countries. Wheat starch is easily digested, as is most wheat protein. Wheat contains minerals, vitamins and fats (lipids), and with a small amount of animal or legume protein added is highly nutritious. A predominately wheat-based diet is higher in fibre than a meat-based diet (Johnson et al., 1978)….


Wheat Production of Major Exporters in the Southern Hemisphere

Monday, July 4, 2022

From the article:

In the latest WASDE report, USDA projected lower world wheat production than last season. This lower projection was primarily a result of lower expected wheat production in Ukraine, although partially offset by higher spring wheat production in Canada. 

The southern hemisphere represents 6-10% of annual global wheat production, 45-72 MMT over the past 10-years (USDA-PSD). The two dominant producers in the southern hemisphere are Australia and Argentina, contributing 75-82% of total southern hemisphere production. An increase in winter wheat acreage for the two main exporters from the southern hemisphere, Argentina and Australia, would have been expected given soaring prices. On the contrary, USDA projects lower wheat production for the upcoming 2022-23 season in Argentina and Australia (Graph 1) which are both coming from record high production levels in their previous seasons. The effect of La Niña and high production costs have reduced 2022-23 wheat projections, compared to last year’s records….


Central Australia harvests its first wheat crop in more than 45 years

From the article:

A farm in the Northern Territory is about to harvest what is likely to be the most remote wheat crop in Australia.

Key points:

  • Desert Springs Farm has grown the Northern Territory’s first wheat crop in more than 45 years
  • 110 hectares of durum wheat has been grown north of Alice Springs
  • The variety is in high demand due to the war in the Ukraine and flooding in eastern states

Desert Springs farm, nearly 400 kilometres north of Alice Springs, normally grows watermelons.

But this year 110 hectares of durum wheat was planted under two centre pivots.

Owner Paul McLaughlin said he was expecting yields of up to seven tonnes per hectare.

“To get that quality, you need a hot, dry finish, which we normally get out here,” Mr McLaughlin said.

He said durum wheat was used to make pasta.


Some good news for pasta lovers.


Cracked corn and wheat is used for chicken feed also…


Egg prices are eggnormous!

From Jan. 18, 2023

‘Egg-scuse me, this carton is how much?’ Here’s why egg prices are soaring across the US

From the article:

…Why are eggs so expensive?

Three reasons: an increase in holiday demand, higher production costs for farmers, and an outbreak of bird flu, a highly contagious virus that can be fatal to poultry such as chickens and turkeys.

As of December, more than 43 million egg-laying hens were lost since the outbreak began in February 2022, according to the to  the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

The virus has led to the deaths of more than 57 million birdsin hundreds of commercial and backyard flocks across 47 states since February, surpassing the 50 million birdslost in the 2015 avian influenza outbreak, according to the USDA….


White Horse aids Black Horse!


It’s not baby food, but…

From the article:

…lightning rod for geopolitical friction, so the race for fertilizers has alerted the U.S. and its allies to a strategic dependency for an agricultural input that is a key determinant of food security.”

The report cites a “cargo” that was trapped in Rotterdam that was so precious the U.N. intervened to get it moved to Mozambique. It was tons of fertilizer destined overland for Malawi.

“About 20% of Malawi’s population is projected to face acute food insecurity during the ‘lean season’ through March, making the use of fertilizers to grow crops all the more vital. It’s one of 48 nations in Africa, Asia and Latin America identified by the International Monetary Fund as most at risk from the shock to food and fertilizer costs fanned by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. One year on, the upheaval caused to world fertilizer markets is seen by the U.N. as a key risk to food availability in 2023,” the report explained.

The report explained that it is who controls fertilizers that is moved “to the forefront of the political agenda.”…

“The situation is exacerbated by sanctions on potash giant Belarus alongside the decision by China, a major producer of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers, to impose restrictions on exports to protect domestic supply, curbs that analysts don’t see being lifted until the middle of 2023 at the earliest,” the report said.

Experts are estimating a 20% drop in food production because of the fertilizer industry issues.

Meanwhile, Joe Biden is delivering $500 million in grants to companies to try to persuade increased production in the United States.



Zelenskyy gets nearly 77.5 billion

Only 1/2 billion to “persuade“…

American increased production!?!?


Hold on to ya hats!

Fertilizer prices remain high and will result in high fertilizer costs for 2023. Reducing rates seems prudent in several situations. Phosphorus and potassium applications can be reduced or eliminated if soil test levels are sufficiently high. Nitrogen rates should be done at MRTN levels.

Farmers have to know science and math too!

High fertilizer prices expected to continue in 2023

From the article:

Impact of nitrogen costs on acreage intentions

BOZEMAN, Mont. — Farmers Business Network, the global AgTech platform and farmer-to-farmer network, released its first Fertilizer Price Transparency Report, an in-depth examination of how rapidly increasing fertilizer prices will impact farmers’ application rates this fall and planting decisions next year.

The report is based on FBN member input on fall fertilizer price quotes, their 2022 application rates and a preview of their 2023 crop plans.

FBN’s analysis exposed widespread fertilizer price variation across regions — especially with nitrogen fertilizer — which could suggest a lack of price transparency with possible implications for 2023 crop plans.

The FBN analysis of 2022 fertilizer prices and the impact of extreme price increases on farmers’ fall application rates and 2023 cropping decisions is the most comprehensive research to date on the topic.

“With natural gas prices still high and major market disruptions due to the Russia-Ukraine war, we don’t expect fertilizer prices to normalize in time for farmers’ 2023 crop planning,” said FBN Chief Economist Kevin McNew….


Reduce fertilizer = reduced acreage or reduced yeilds

Maybe both!

Catch 22 for farmers?

Then there’s future weather!


Most assuredly…

Increased prices for consumers!


Key Fed inflation measure rose 0.6% in January, more than expected

From the article:


  • The core personal consumption expenditures price index increased 0.6% for the month, and was up 4.7% from a year ago.
  • Headline inflation increased 0.6% and 5.4% respectively. All the numbers were higher than estimates.
  • The numbers suggest inflation accelerated to start the new year, putting the Fed in a position where it likely will continue to raise interest rates.

A measure the Federal Reserve watches closely to gauge inflation rose more than expected in January, indicating the central bank has more work to do to bring down prices.

The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy increased 0.6% for the month, and was up 4.7% from a year ago, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Wall Street had been expecting respective readings of 0.5% and 4.4%. The core PCE gains were 0.4% and 4.6% in December.

Including the volatile food and energy components, headline inflation increased 0.6% and 5.4% respectively, compared to 0.2% and 5.3% in December….


{Why isn’t it componded monthly like interest rates?}

Various food price expectations for 2023

Of course…

Government is most optimistic!


Government trust is low.


Revelation 6:5-6

(KJV) And when he had opened the third seal, I heard the third beast say, Come and see. And I beheld, and lo a black horse; and he that sat on him had a pair of balances in his hand. And I heard a voice in the midst of the four beasts say, A measure of wheat for a penny, and three measures of barley for a penny; and see thou hurt not the oil and the wine.

Come out of Babylon for her judgement is near!


1 Comment

  1. Chuck says:

    i worked in inventory management over 30 years, and, one thing that you learn real quick, is that everything is connected in some way. your post shows just how connected everything is concerning food, from the field to the end product at the table to eat. Blessing always brother.

    Liked by 1 person

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